Luck, probability and why it’s good to be in the 0% club

On Friday afternoon, right around pub o’clock for many Australians about 8 million computers around the world or 1% of all computers running Microsoft Windows bluescreened more or less at the same time.  To see it in person would have been like one of those end of the world movies where everything turns to s*** and aeroplanes fall out of the sky.  For some it probably felt that way too, no doubt the early responders were probably thinking ‘this is a global cyber attack’.  Spoiler – it wasn’t.

The cause of this mayhem was a software update having been pushed out to a software product named Falcon, by the company CrowdStrike.  CrowdStrike are known as one of the best providers of cyber security defence software globally, it would be so easy to make this article about how terrible CrowdStrike are and how they clearly didn’t test the update properly before releasing it but I’m not going to do that.

So what does luck and probability have to do with this?  Put simply, our customers got lucky, they are in the 0% club, not one single customer of Australia Wide IT was directly affected by this event (but no doubt many were indirectly affected).  It just happens to be that we don’t use CrowdStrike software but we do use plenty of other large scale, globally distributed and controlled software that could have suffered from the same fate.

There is a silver lining though, the CrowdStrike outage on Friday was avoidable, you can bet your last dollar that heads are going to roll and stock values are going to take a hit.  But more importantly other large scale global software vendors and plenty of small ones too will use this as a lesson to improve their own testing processes before releasing software updates and that has to be a good thing for all of us.

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